Valentine’s Day is Sweeten’s troubles, Due to unfavorable weather conditions that damage West African crops and force chocolatiers to use extra fillers like almonds, money can’t buy you love or as much cocoa anymore.
“Valentine’s Day is a celebration of love, a time to cherish the bonds that connect us and to express gratitude for the special people in our lives.”
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Valentine’s Day is Sweeten’s troubles
Valentine’s Day troubles are made sweeter by climate change.
This year’s Valentine’s Day can cost you more if you don’t like nuts in your candy. In order to offset the cost of pure chocolate, the chocolates inside many of the heart-shaped boxes for this holiday season are probably going to have more filler items, such as nuts and fruits.
According to Jacques Torres, a chocolatier with upscale stores in New York City, “we used to look at hazelnuts and pistachio as an expensive inclusion.” “We are able to reduce the price of our chocolate bar today because of those nuts.”
Adobe Analytics, a company that monitors online retail prices, reports that the cost of raw cocoa, a crucial component of chocolate, has increased by 200% in the last 12 months.
Just before Christmas, cocoa futures hit a record high of over $12,000 a ton, but they have since fallen a little on international commodities markets. They were under $2,500 two years ago.
In order to offset the increased expenses, Torres stated that he had to raise prices by 20% last month. He expects to raise rates once more before the year ends.
The traditional price spike that occurred just before the biggest day of the year for the chocolate industry has been building for months.
Climate change-induced weather disruptions have severely damaged West Africa, which produces the majority of the world’s cacao—the raw bean used to make chocolate. The steep price increase on international markets that consumers are increasingly expecting to experience this year is fueled by similar difficulties that have been growing for coffee growers as well.
Temperatures as high as 89 degrees Fahrenheit and less than 2,000 millimeters of precipitation per year are ideal for cacao bean growth.
According to a report released this week by Climate Central, a climate research institute, 71% of West African cacao-producing regions saw an average of 42 days with temperatures above that heat threshold in 2024, with some regions receiving 40% more rainfall than anticipated during the rainy season’s peak.
According to the study, fungal infections in cocoa beans are exacerbated by higher temperatures and precipitation. Mealybugs, which can transmit an infection that damages cocoa crops, are also bred by warm, humid weather.
Rainfall and extreme heat have a negative combined effect on chocolate growers’ yield. Production decreased 13.1% from the previous harvest season in 2023–2024.
Because rising temperatures trap more moisture in the sky, extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense, and excessive precipitation is strongly related to global warming. While the entire continent warms 0.3 degrees Celsius quicker per decade than the global average, climate experts predict that West Africa will continue to see extreme rainfall patterns for the remainder of the century.
Jason Clay, executive director of the World Wildlife Fund’s Markets Institute, described this as “sort of the new norm.” “We are observing that in certain crops and in certain places, there are more bad years than good years due to climate change.”
According to Wells Fargo experts, the cocoa supply imbalance is currently at its lowest level in 60 years, with a negative 478,000 metric tons. The pressure is making people question whether Valentine’s Day celebrations will continue.
Hershey is also reacting to the market pressure. Bloomberg reported last month that the chocolate giant asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for approval to purchase over 90,000 metric tons of cocoa, which is more than nine times the limit permitted by the exchange. The request was rejected by regulators, who claimed that such a massive sale would have monopolized the world market.
A Hershey representative denied concerns of a shortage while remaining silent on the CFTC ruling, stating that the business “has a rigorous commodity procurement process, and we are well-covered in our cocoa needs for 2025.”
According to Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute sector manager David Branch, chocolate products may be the next to suffer from shrinkflation, which occurs when companies shrink their products without raising their prices accordingly. Democratic lawmakers have criticized this practice as a contributing factor to inflation.
With climate change, we’re seeing that there are more bad years than there are good years in some crops.-Jason Clay
Branch stated, “I believe we’re going to see a little shrinkage in the 30-piece bags of the mini candy bars.” The price point essentially remains the same, even if there might be 20 pieces in a bag rather than 30.
According to the National Confectioners Association, chocolate sales in the 12 months that ended in mid-August of last year exceeded $21 billion, up 1.5% over the previous 12-month period. However, units sold decreased by almost 5%, suggesting that customers paid more for less chocolate.
Environmental regulations in cocoa-producing regions must be strengthened, according to activists, in order to keep chocolate affordable.
Food production has only just begun to be impacted by climate change. “It will get much worse,” Clay stated. “The good news is that temperatures in these deforested areas can be prevented from rising as high if trees are planted for shade.”
Clay stated that rather of competing with one another, chocolate manufacturers should cooperate in order to invest in safeguards. This involves increasing the number of trees planted, making sure cocoa growers receive sustainable compensation, and genetically altering crops to make them more resistant to disease.
He claimed that while it won’t lessen every effect of climate change, it will lessen the most significant ones. “We really should hope for that.”
Customers may have to choose between different kinds of candy or deal with extra nuts and fruits in their chocolate in the interim.
Perhaps younger buyers are setting the standard already. The NCA attributed the 5.4% increase in sales of non-chocolate sweets in 2024 to Gen Z and millennial customers’ preference for “all things sour, flavor mashups, different textures, and flavor experiences”—a greater increase than either chocolate or gum and mints saw the previous year.